Welcome to your guide through the treacherous waters that can be the Summer Movie Fantasy Box Office Season. From avid movie buffs to causal movie watchers, Speak Easy has put together a guide to the summer movies in a manner that you can relate to: The NFL.
Without wasting any time, let’s get started. For the purposes of the analogy, the unknown factors like the draft and remaining free agent signings become reviews and poor word of mouth. We really do not know, so all movies, like the upcoming NFL season are based on what we know. From previews, actor and director history, and other movies in the series; these things relate to last season’s results, trades, and free agent signings. Click on the titles as well to view there trailers.
Group 1: We will be happy if they open at $20 mil and have good legs crowd, but really we just want to make our money back
This group contains the movies that if everything falls into the right place, they might crack a $100 mil; prefect for your third round pick or if you really feel like gambling. In the NFL, they would be teams in rebuilding mode or the perennial doormats of the League (I am looking at you Jacksonville). We will count down from 32 to 1. It was surprisingly hard to find 32 movies that I even thought warranted a mention on this list, but being at the bottom of this list does not mean it will be a bad movie, because all 32 of these beat out the other 100+ wide to limited releases over the three month time period.
Seems like a a by the book horror film at first glance, which in the summer is not a big draw, unless it is really good. However low budget, R-rated slasher flicks flounder in the summer. They are the NFL equivalent of the Jacksonville Jags. Looks like they are going to just be awful with a shit cast, director and writer, but there is that one redeeming quality that slightly intrigues you. MJD in the Jags case and the fresh angle that the haunted house in the woods might be some sci-fi game show, which could provide a unique twist to the genre. Box office Projection: $30-50 mil (3-13) – Release Date: 4/13
I mention The Three Stoogies in this preview, because by all accounts it looks terrible, which is pretty much what the Vikings look like. They panicked and selected Christian Ponder to be their future QB, much like the producers of this movie did when all the big name comedic actors turned them down. They reached for two un-knowns and that gay guy from Will & Grace…ok, three unknowns. Either way, there will be some decent sight gags, and maybe a laugh or two (like watching AP run, till he picks up that turf toe at about week 12, just in time to KILL you for the fantasy playoffs). Box Office Projection: $30-50 mil (4-12) – Release Date: 4/13
If you haven’t watched the red band trailer yet, do yourself a favor and check it out. DD is in the title for a reason and the baby piranha swimming up somewhere it should not is pretty sick. This is a movie that will certainly have some comically bad parts and some pretty fucked up shit that could be quite entertaining. This is not worth seeing in the theater, unless you’re a die-hard fan, much like the Redskins. They will definitely be worth checking out the highlights on SportsCenter, with RGIII making plays, but not worth investing in a full game. Box Office Projection: $40-50 mil (5-11) – Release Date: 6/1
29. Magic Mike -
Every year this happens. Someone releases their Oscar contender in the middle of the summer. This year it is Steven Soderbrough, who drops his tale of male strippers right in between blockbusters the week before July 4th. An all-star cast and Soderbrough at the helm might have made this the type of movie that would kill in the winter time, when this type of fair is more common and would get the screens/time to make money. Sounds like the St. Louis Rams. The pieces are right there, but it is just a a little too early to really see them making wave. Box Office Projection: $15-25 mil – Release Date: 6/29
28 – 27. The Lucky One & What to Expect when Expecting -
These are two different takes on chick flicks. One is ANOTHER Nicholas Sparks adaption in which a U.S. Marine finds a picture of a woman on a dead solider and STALKS her back to her hometown. He eventually gets a job on her farm and finally falls in love (yes that also could be a horror movie as well; just change the last four words to cuts her up and buries her in the corn fields). Oh and we are suppose to believe that Zac Efron is a bad ass Marine? The other is an ensemble cast of b-list actors and actresses in a He’s just not that into you for pregnant couples. Both could be big hits, if they get the reviews and the release dates right, but they also could be big stinking piles of crap. They are comparable to the Chiefs and the Browns. Decent pieces in place, but nothing special. However, if you had to choose, you would probably go with the Chiefs. They have more talent and some nice pieces coming back from injury. So in retrospect, if you had to pick one of these films, go with The Lucky One. Ladies love Nicholas Sparks and their daughters love Zac Efron. Box Office Predictions: $45-80 mil – Release Date:4/20 & 5/18
Hey let’s re-release the second highest grossing movie all over again, but let’s convert it into 3-D. That way we can charge the same screaming girls who went to see it 57 times the first time $15 bucks this go around. Oh and now that they are in their mid 20s, they have more income and can drag along their significant others this time. It’s a win win situation. Titanic this season, will be a modest hit, just like the Colts with Andrew Luck. Enough business and it will take out Avatar for the highest grossing film of all time, which would be a pretty big achievement. The future would be bright, sound familiar? Box office Predication: $70-80 mil – Release Date: 4/4
Who cares that it’s the fourth movie about two dancers from across the tracks? Seriously who gives a crap? You are the Seattle Seahawks of the NFL. It’s rainy and sad 300 days out of the year and no one gives a shit about your team outside of Seattle. Box Office Prediction: $40-65 mil – Release Date: 7/27
24. Tyler Perrys The Marriage Counselor -
Probably the safest bet around. Tyler Perry movies are formulatic, cheap to make and usually always do solid in the box office; kind of like the Titans. They aren’t pretty, but they are always right around average. Box Office Prediction: $70-80 mil – Release Date: 7/27
Group 2: We Spent more money on this movie than we should have and we are praying that is a big hit, but on the outside we are saying we will be happy if it makes $100 mil and opens well.
23. Snow White and the Huntsmen -
It’s make or break time for Kristen Stewart. Can she carry a movie in which the name does not include Twilight? Can Ryan Fitzpatrick be a legitimate starter in the NFL? K-Stew has been set up for success. They brought in another hunky lead (Chris Hemsworth, that’s right THOR), an experienced and talented villain to play against (Charlize Theron), and are using an established, well-known source material (Snow White). If the movie bombs, so does her star power. Fitz is in the same boat. They resigned his go-to guy (Stevie Johnson), spent big money on Mario Williams to provide a pass rush, and the rest of the team/coaching staff is back together. HUGE SEASONS FOR BOTH OF THEM…game changers. Box Office Prediction: $50-70 mil – Release Date: 6/1 (Side note: K-Stew can’t act for shit, and Fitz is a below average QB and it’s never going to change, no matter how many sighs and lip curls she does).
22. GI Joe: Retailation -
Bounced all the cast and added the Rock. The first movie was decent, but it was young and fun. Now they are back on board with new faces and a new director, and Cobra taking over the White House. Honestly it might be terrible, but then there is that chance it could be pretty damn entertaining, much like the Bucs. They could be good or really bad, it just depends on how well Freeman (The Rock) plays. Box Office Prediction: $100 mil – Release Date: 6/29
21. That’s my Boy -
Adam Sandler in an R-rated comedy that is not directed by Judd “I take my comedies wayyy too seriously” Apdtow. In theory it sounds great, then you see the trailer and wonder why the heck is he talking like a drunk Little Nicky or why does Rex Ryan has a cameo? Then you watch the red band trailer and think, this might not be soo terrible. It is really a mystery, you just don’t know? The Raiders are the same way, they look good on paper, but then they have a new coach and front office. Too many unknowns, but we will see. Box Office Prediction: $70-85 mil - Release Date: 6/15
20. The Dictator -
Sasha Baron Cohen’s latest, about him as a middle east or African dictator who rules a made up country. Right now, Cohen is the Hollywood version of Michael Vick. He had a HUGE hit (Borat / 2010 season), got tons of money (some ridiculous 3 picture deal from Universal /$100 mil contract) and proceeded to follow it up by being decidedly average. Bruno was terrible, but was not a complete bomb / Vick struggled to stay healthy and the numbers were down, but in the end they were still in the hunt. Now they both need big performance to justify the big paydays. Box Office Prediction: $70 – 90 mil – Release Date: 5/11 (Although this could be much higher; it is it more Borat than Bruno, much like the Eagles this season).
Up Next… Part 2..
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